In normal season, by June 13th at least a third of the teams in the league have made noise about selling. This June 13th, only two divisions have a definitive leader (Phoenix in the Rec East and GB in the Browne Central). Furthermore, only six teams are truly out of it, and three of those teams play in a division with Green Bay. That leaves 5 divisions containing 21 teams that all have a legitimate shot at a wild card finish if not a division title.
The poster-child for this season is the Rectenwald East, where last place London (31-34) has the same number of losses as first place Washington (34-31) has wins. This division will be decided by who makes the best deals in the next couple months. (either that or Bermuda's offense whenever it wakes up.) Then there's the central where Mobile and Des Moines are in a dead heat for 1st place, with El Paso charging up the standings. On top of that, Oklahoma City seems to have righted the ship with what is one of the more talented rosters they have ever had.
Over in the Browne the West division probably won't be decided until the last day of the season. Overshadowed by the Honolulu/Calgary duel are two very good teams in Valencia and Oregon, which are both a hot streak away from making this a three (or four) team race. Valencia is very talented and if their pitching gets going, they will be tough to beat. Oregon is very deep, and if two or three of the 20 or so good players they have catch fire, they are right back in it. Harrisburg is starting to pull away in the East division, but is still only 7.5 games ahead of last place. Jackson is a question mark, but apparently one that plays good baseball, and Orlando is just biding time until its pitching staff gets back.
With so many variables involved, its any one's guess as to how the pieces will fall. With that said, I'm giving myself two wild card picks in the following predictions.
Rec East - Key Largo - because I really want to win (Probably Washington though)
Rec Central - Des Moines
Rec West - Phoenix
Wild Card - Mobile or Oklahoma City
Browne East - Harrisburg
Browne Central - Green Bay
Browne West - Honolulu
Wild Card - Calgary or Orlando
Monday, October 15, 2007
Most Competitive Season in Deuce History?
Posted by Ted at 8:29 AM 0 comments
Key Largo gambles to improve pitching staff
The Hurricanes made an interesting move Wednesday, June 13th, trading their 2019 1st rounder to Harlem for veteran starter Larry Kelleher and promising young arm Dontrell Rasnick. While it's possible that the Hurricanes actually needed to improve their offense more, the addition of the two new arms gets Virdell Madding back to the minors where he belongs and sends complete bust (Damn you Aaron) Gunner Bradfield packing. Of the departure of Bradfield, management said the following, "That one really hurts. Gunner showed so much promise. He strikes out better than a batter an inning with that ridiculous knuckler of his, but we could never convince him to abandon his fastball." Perhaps as a starter in Harlem he'll work out his issues, otherwise he'll just be another scrap heap project someone picks up near the end of FA each season, hoping for a turnaround.
Kelleher and Rasnick on the other hand should really improve the Hurricanes pitching. Kelleher has been a dominant ace at times in his career, and Rasnick has two very good pitches and the potential to start if needed. It may take time for the roles to settle out, but this trade signals that the Hurricanes are getting ready to make a run at it this year and more moves may be coming.
Posted by Ted at 8:18 AM 0 comments
Friday, October 12, 2007
Rating the 2018 Amateurs
I don't have the greatest of stakes in the year's draft since my first pick will be at #45. Maybe Lucio Lennon will be around then, with his potential 78 fastball and 68 slider, with 53 control. Maybe. Or Dobie Makmquist, a rightfielder with 56-54-50 potential.
So this is pretty straight-talking, with no reason to misdirect anyone into taking the wrong guy so that I can get who I want! No, this is just what I see.
This draft is a pitching draft. I rate 4 of these guys in the top 20 of the entire league. When you consider that a career might last 15 seasons then you'd expect 1 or 2 in the top 20. Not 4. And I've got 7 in the top 40, instead of 3. I've got 1 hitter in the top 20, another at 34, another at 57. That's thin! And after the 9th best hitter (at #93) we drop all the way to 177. That's how I've got it. The 10th best hitter is #177. The 10th best pitcher is #69.
If I had the first pick I'd take Louis Wickland. Three solid pitches, good arm, excellent control. While I rate a lot of pitchers highly, all the rest have question marks. Souchock and Dimaria are changeup pitchers who should be good but I shy away from that type, although a quick look at the ratings would compare Souchock to Konstantino Shawn and Dimaria is similar to Sondag and Easley. Lap Dog, Fernandogu LaPierre, is the best reliever but you can't pick a reliever that early, can you? Parnell McDevitt intrigues me. His primary pitch is a slider so he won't be relying on a change. I think Zeth Janco will be the most overrated pitcher in the draft. I'm hoping he slips to #45.
Among the hitters, it's got to be Orion Cornish, with his 63-65-64 ratings and his 39 vL. But even if he's the best hitter in this draft he's still only the #3 1b in the league, or will be #3 when he matures. He'll be a solid player but doesn't compare to Desmond Hume, from the last draft.
I've got Burley Trippy rated as the second best hitter in the draft and yet only the 9th best centerfielder in the league. If you're picking early and you don't have one of those 8 then Trippy is a good pick, otherwise take a pitcher!
My Top Ten:
Louis Wickland, P
Carlin Dimaria, P
Judson Souchock, P
Orion Cornish, 1b
Fernandogu LaPierre, RP
Parnell McDevitt, P
Burley Trippy, CF
Binh Datson, SS
Hyman Tusler, RP
Maxwell Abney, 3b
and I'd think hard on relievers Abbie Vache and Kaiser Artus.
Posted by Eric Ramon at 1:12 PM 2 comments
Sunday, October 7, 2007
2018 so far
It's a young season, but here are the things that have caught my eye. Feel free to argue with me about any of them.
1)Mobile has absolutely snuck up on me and the rest of the Rec Central. At first I expected this team to fall back, but why should they? The have two fantastic starters in Bob Hill and Decker O'Quinn (although you could say the rest of the rotation is overachieving a bit), a decent pen, and an extremely fast offense full of guys that hit the ball hard. Kudos to Logan for quietly putting this team together.
2)What is going on the in Browne Central? GB is doing what GB does, but seems truly vulnerable for the first time in a great while. Age and attrition seem to have caught up to Indy, but they shouldn't be this bad, should they? Finally, what is Iowa doing? Unless I'm completely wrong about pitchers getting rest (and I might be, it's possible that FPS has just decided Iowa can't pitch this year. See what Shannon has to say about that.), Iowa would be better off picking up the worst two guys off the waiver wire and throwing them in the pen rather than running down their very good rotation and what little bullpen they have to the point where the waiver wire might be an improvement.
3) Jackson should not be this good, but I know that Jeff Dalmedo is, so I don't know what to think.
4) Finally, the Browne West is awesome. If Valencia's pitching holds up as the weather gets warm (And park effect is the only reason I'm questioning it), this is a legitimate 3 team (Honolulu, Calgary) race between what may be the 3 best teams in the Browne. Poor Oregon is going to get stuck being a bridesmaid with a very solid, deep team this year.
Posted by Ted at 11:52 AM 1 comments
2013 Draft Rivalry Renewed
When Augie Plascencia and Rahim Acy went 1-2 in the 2013 draft, the debates began as to whether the unprecedented ability of Plascencia to get the bat on the ball or the more traditional combination of great average and power of Acy would make a better ballplayer. However, the contest was absolutely derailed when a combination of injuries and drastically different playing environments made any comparison between the two players pointless. By 2017 Acy had cemented himself as the centerpieces of one of the highest octane offenses in the league, and Plascencia was struggling to prove he wasn't a bust. 52 games into the 2018, a stadium change has put an end to that question and revitalized the competition between Acy and Plascencia. Replacing 81 home games in a hitter's hellhole by building a new, more offense-friendly park has roughly equalized the playing environments of the two former prodigies, and the leader boards are showing the results. They are currently 1-2 in RBI (Acy 43, Plascencia 41). Augie is currently at the top of the leader board in average, hits, slugging, runs, and runs created, taking over most of those categories last week when he went 21 for 36 with 3 HR and 11 RBI. Acy on the other hand is top ten in many of the same categories and has been at or near the top at times. It's a young season, but it appears this will be an exciting battle for the rest of the season and perhaps a great rivalry for many years to come.
Posted by Ted at 10:41 AM 0 comments
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
We Got Sondag'd
Congrats to that dirty bastard Michale Sondag for no-hitting your reigning Deuce Champs on May 28th. We just came off of outbursts of multiple double-digit runs and this madman comes and breaks this wicked outing off on us.
I guess we shouldn't have called him such a pansy a couple seasons back...
Posted by Mike at 9:26 PM 0 comments